Acknowledging uncertainty impacts public acceptance of climate scientists’ predictions

Published in: Nature Climate Change - October 2019

Written by

Lauren Howe, Bo MacInns, Jon Krosnick, Ezra Markowitz and Robert Socolow

Summary

What we found: When predictions about the effects of climate change are presented with a best case and a worst-case scenario (“sea level rise could be as little as 1 foot, or as much as 4 feet”), confidence in the scientists and their messages increases. However, when scientists acknowledge the full extent of inevitable uncertainty (that hurricanes and other storms could exacerbate the effects of sea level rise), trust declines.

Why it matters: Trust in scientists is key in the fight against climate change, and scientists may worry that acknowledging uncertainty would hurt trust. It is also central for organizations that they are trusted and that their communication promotes confidence even when faced with uncertainty.

What next: To gain trust, organizations should consider the way they communicate, especially under conditions of uncertainty. People may be more receptive to moderate levels of uncertainty than expected, but may be overwhelmed by too much uncertainty.